Machine learning enabled forecasting | Advanced
логотип Advansed
augmento augmento

Prediction using Machine learning algorithms

OUR COMPETENCIES IN MACHINE LEARNING

DATA SCIENCE
DATA SCIENCE

Data processing and analysis to find common patterns, dependencies and areas for optimization: preventing out of stock, diving into promotions’ effectiveness, demand drivers’ decomposition etc.

ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ
Forecasting

Forecasting models based on machine learning algorithms: demand forecast, pricing, promotional sales, new products forecast, inventory forecast etc.

ОПТИМИЗАЦИЯ
Optimization

Recommendation models maximize profit, revenue, or costs reduction: promotional investment optimization, inventory optimization in a warehouse or store, “smart” pricing etc.

WHY MACHINE LEARNING IS BETTER

01
MORE ADVANCED
Modern ML methods can train themselves on implicit regularities between a target variable, for example, a demand curve, and various other influencing variables which cannot be identified using traditional methods or by experts.
02
MORE ACCURATE
Traditional forecasting methods normally rely on historical sales, whereas a ML-enabled forecast leverages other pivotal factors impacting the demand: promotional spend, inventory, weather forecast etc.
03
MORE PROFITABLE
Employing ML methods are beneficial to business teams as they help reduce the time spent on processing and analyzing the data or making a forecast. Eventually it is likely to lead to a significant increase in business efficiency. 

TANGIBLE BUSINESS VALUE

Forecast accuracy increase for up to 20%
Forecast accuracy increase for up to 20%
Time spend by planning managers on forecasting goes down by 50%
Time spend by planning managers on forecasting goes down by 50%
Streamlined and simplified forecasting process and planning in general
Streamlined and simplified forecasting process and planning in general

OUR ML SOLUTIONS AND SERVICES

Each project is unique, but each time we develop a custom ML model, we help audit and, if necessary, adjust the target business process, in an attempt to eliminate hurdles while launching and adopting the new technology. 

АНАЛИЗ И НАСТРОЙКА БИЗНЕС ПРОЦЕССА
BUSINESS PROCESS TUNING

Auditing and adjusting business processes while implementing ML technologies (to ensure effectiveness).

ПОСТРОЕНИЕ И ЗАПУСК ML-МОДЕЛИ
ML MODEL DEVELOPMENT

Developing, doing integration work and commissioning ML-enabled forecasting or optimization models.

ПОСТРОЕНИЕ И ЗАПУСК ML-МОДЕЛИ
BUSINESS AS USUAL SUPPORT

Providing support for ML models after the launch: Technical support and Methodological support for business teams (outsourcing the role of a demand planner or data scientist).

OUR USE-CASES

Data science and Machine learning methods can effectively tackle a number of core business challenges – from demand forecasting to optimizing multi-million budgets spent on price promotions.

DEMAND PLANNING
Baseline sales
New products sales
Total demand 
Seasonal sales
History cleansing
Demand drivers’ decomposition
PROMO PLANNING
Promotional sales
Price promotions effectiveness analysis
Promo plan and budget optimization
Non-price promotions effectiveness
Competitors’ promo strategies analysis
Sales forecast driven by co-investments by retailers
SALES FORECASTING
Optimal pricing
Distribution level forecast
Off-shelf sales 
Assortment optimization
Portfolio cannibalization analysis
SUPPLY PLANNING
Inventory level forecast
Inventory level optimization
Procurement prices forecast
Probabilistic forecast
In-store out of stock analysis and forecast

MACHINE LEARNING METHODS WE EMPLOY

Depending on the task and available data, our data scientists develop ML models with unique features and algorithms. An exact business objective can be attained using regressions, decision trees, and/or neural networks.

РЕГРЕССИОННЫЕ МОДЕЛИ
REGRESSIONS
  • Linear regression
  • Polynomial regression
ДЕРЕВЬЯ РЕШЕНИЙ И АНСАМБЛИ
DECISION TREES AND ENSEMBLE
  • Decision trees
  • К-nearest neighbors
  • Random Forest
  • Gradient Boosting
КЛАСТЕРИЗАЦИЯ
CLUSTERING
  • К-means
  • DBSCAN
НЕЙРОННЫЕ СЕТИ
NEURAL NETWORKS
  • Perceptron
  • CNN
  • RNN

INTEGRATED SOLUTION FOR BUSINESS

Input data
ML model
Forecast visualization
Review
Correction
Aprroval
INTEGRATION INTEGRATION
Starting the forecast recalculation if necessary
Saving the version of the approved forecast for accuracy evaluation
INTEGRATION INTEGRATION
Starting the forecast recalculation if necessary
Saving the version of the approved forecast for accuracy evaluation

OUR CUSTOMERS TRANSFORMING THEIR BUSINESS
WITH MACHINE LEARNING

Big multinational and local companies in Russia and the USA leverage our solutions for forecasting and optimization.

Baseline and total sales forecast for Sales team
Long-term rolling forecast by months for 12 months
Data science subscription service
Operational forecast by days for 12 weeks
Regular technical support for the ML model
Total demand forecast for Demand planning
Sales forecast for e-commerce customers
Sales forecast during price promotions 
Custom-made forecasting models in Walmart, Amazon, and Target 
Regular technical support for all ML models